Publication Date
9-10-2021
Description
In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemiological models to CDC secondary historical data aggregated on a weekly basis, and derive the transmission rates at which susceptible individuals become infected over the course of the influenza season. Using a system of differential equations, we define four groups of individuals in a population: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. We show that a larger number of initially infected individuals might not only bring the influenza season to an end sooner but also reduce the epidemic size. Moreover, any influenza virus that entails a faster recovery rate does not necessarily lead to a smaller epidemic size.
Journal
Medicine
Volume
100
Issue
36
First Page
e27169
Department
Analytics & Operations Management
Second Department
Analytics & Operations Management
Link to Published Version
https://journals.lww.com/md-journal/Fulltext/2021/09100/Simulating_influenza_epidemics_with_waning_vaccine.26.aspx
DOI
10.1097/MD.0000000000027169
Recommended Citation
Chen, Chun-Miin and Stanciu, Alia C.. "Simulating Influenza Epidemics with Waning Vaccine Immunity." (2021) : e27169.
Included in
Disease Modeling Commons, Epidemiology Commons, Influenza Virus Vaccines Commons, Virus Diseases Commons
