Date of Thesis

Spring 2022


In the past decades, under the government’s export-led growth strategy, the Vietnamese manufacturing sector – the backbone of the whole Vietnamese economy – has established a deep tie with the international market and the reliance on foreign buyers has fueled the growth of this sector before COVID-19. However, during the pandemic, when the global market contracted at -3.5 percent and demand slumped globally, this existing growth model and the manufacturing sector’s reliance on foreign buyers induced significant risks to this sector from both the demand and supply side. Using the firm-level data on 41 manufacturing exporting companies from the Vietstock database and national-level data on the development of COVID-19 and the magnitude of fiscal policies enacted from the IMF and World bank, this paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 situation in significant trading partners and in Vietnam on the bankruptcy risks of manufacturing companies. Using a fixed-effect regression model, we found that the COVID-19 pandemic introduced great revenue volatility but did not undermine the solvency levels of Vietnamese manufacturers. Further examination of firm-level financial ratios elucidates that a decade of high growth has built up the necessary firm-level financial resilience that allows these manufacturers to withstand massive macroeconomic shocks.


COVID-19, Export-led Growth Model, Manufacturing Industry, Corporate Bankruptcy Risk, Altman Z-score

Access Type

Honors Thesis

Degree Type

Bachelor of Science in Business Administration


Accounting and Financial Management

Minor, Emphasis, or Concentration


First Advisor

Karen McGrath

Second Advisor

Thomas Kinnaman